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Grain Markets and Other StuffAuthor: Joe Vaclavik
Joe Vaclavik and Mackenzie Johnston discuss the grain markets, the business of farming, news related to agriculture, and a variety of other topics. Language: en-us Genres: Business, Business News, News Contact email: Get it Feed URL: Get it iTunes ID: Get it |
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House/Senate LEAVE OUT Farm Aid and E15 + Major Winter Storm
Thursday, 22 January, 2026
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Farm Aid & Policy UpdateAdditional farm aid was not included in the current government funding package, catching many lawmakers and farm groups off guard. Senate Republicans had pushed just last week to add up to $15B in aid, but that language was left out.With aid excluded for now, supporters say relief may need to come via supplemental appropriations or future legislation.Congress must pass the funding package by January 30 to avoid another government shutdown.It was also reported yesterday that nationwide E15 language was again dropped, though GOP leaders are discussing a possible supplemental bill that could allow year-round E15 sales.Major Winter Storm RiskA major winter storm is forecast to impact the Southern US this weekend. While the exact track remains uncertain, over 70 million people from Dallas to Little Rock to Nashville are currently under a winter storm watch.Snow, ice, dangerous travel conditions, and power outages are possible. Snow cover remains limited across key HRW wheat areas in the Southern Plains. Temperatures in western Kansas and surrounding regions could fall into the single digits, raising the risk of winter kill depending on snow totals and duration. Livestock stress is also a concern.US–China Trade WatchUS and Chinese officials may soon hold another round of trade talks ahead of the planned April meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.According to the US Trade Representative, negotiations would focus on common goods and services, avoiding sensitive areas like tech and national security.China has already fulfilled its commitment to purchase 12 mmt of US soybeans. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said both sides are now looking ahead to China’s pledge to buy 25 mmt annually through 2028, though Trump continues to push for larger volumes.Europe, Greenland & TariffsPresident Trump announced he will refrain from imposing new tariffs on European countries, following meetings at the World Economic Forum.He stated that a framework for a future deal involving Greenland has been reached, marking a major shift from prior tariff threats. While details remain limited, Denmark continues to oppose any US takeover.Grain Market RecapSoybean futures rebounded Wednesday, with the most-active Mar26 contract gaining roughly 12 cents, settling near $10.65.Support came from a slow start to Brazil’s soybean harvest due to rainfall in northern regions, along with comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent pointing to ongoing Chinese demand for US soybeans.Global Protein TradeChina has reopened its market to Canadian beef imports, ending a ban that had been in place since 2021. Initial shipments are expected to be small, but the move is a positive long-term opportunity for Canada’s cattle industry.Meanwhile, US beef exports to China have declined sharply over the past year amid ongoing trade tensions.India & Wheat ExportsIndia has approved the export of 500,000 tons of wheat flour and related products. Wheat exports had been restricted since May 2022, but a strong monsoon is expected to boost domestic supplies.India is typically self-sufficient in wheat and is sometimes a net exporter. Its re-entry into the export market is considered a bearish factor for global wheat prices.
