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Grain Markets and Other StuffAuthor: Joe Vaclavik
Joe Vaclavik and Mackenzie Johnston discuss the grain markets, the business of farming, news related to agriculture, and a variety of other topics. Language: en-us Genres: Business, Business News, News Contact email: Get it Feed URL: Get it iTunes ID: Get it |
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Will China Hit the White House Soybean Purchase Target? + STRONG US Corn Sales
Monday, 1 December, 2025
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down export sales, flash deals, China/Brazil soybean news, ethanol margins, and record-setting Black Friday spending. 👇📦 Weekly Export Sales (Backdated Again…)Corn:USDA reported 2.8mmt (111 mil bu) in net corn sales for the week ending Oct 16—well above expectations and sharply higher than last week. Mexico was the top buyer.I continue to believe that in real time, US corn sales are running at a record pace, despite the outdated data.Soybeans:Net sales hit 1.1mmt (41 mil bu), up 41% from last week. The Netherlands was the top buyer.Wheat:Came in at 341,300mt (13 mil bu), below expectations and down 44% from last week. Colombia was the top buyer.🚨 Flash Sales UpdateUSDA reported multiple flashes Friday:• 312,000mt (11 mil bu) of soybeans sold to China for 25/26• 273,988mt (11 mil bu) of corn sold to Unknown for 25/26Through Flash Sales alone, China has achieved 18.1% of the 12mmt pre-January purchase goal.There are 22 business days left in 2025.China must average 443,136mt/day to hit the White House target.🇨🇳🇧🇷 China Suspends Some Brazilian Soybean ImportsChina halted shipments from five Brazilian export facilities after detecting pesticide-treated wheat contamination. Impacted companies include Cargill, CHS, and Louis Dreyfus.Exports from unaffected plants will continue — China still has 2,000+ approved Brazilian facilities. Similar issues earlier this year were resolved quickly.🍺 Ethanol Production & Margins• Production rose to 1.11 mil bpd last week (+2% WoW).• Stocks fell to 21.97 mil barrels (-1.5% WoW).• Both metrics are slightly stronger vs. the same week last year.Margins remain solid:Reuters shows Corn Belt ethanol plants earning +10¢ to +40¢ per gallon depending on local corn, DDGs, and inputs.🛍️ Black Friday: Record Online SpendingUS consumers spent $11.8B online on Black Friday (+9.1% YoY) and another $6.4B on Thanksgiving Day.In-store traffic fell 3.6% YoY.Despite tariff uncertainty and a softening job market, analysts still expect holiday spending to top $1T this season—with more shoppers leaning on buy-now-pay-later options.
