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Regulatory Oversight PodcastAuthor: Stephen C. Piepgrass, Ashley L. Taylor, Troutman Pepper Locke
Regulatory priorities can seemingly shift overnight with one lawsuit, investigative news article, election, or bill signing. Troutman Pepper Lockes Regulatory Oversight Podcast analyzes the underlying trends that drive enforcement activity and provides expert perspectives on key focus areas. Featuring insights from members of the firms Regulatory Practice Group, including its nationally ranked State Attorneys General practice, with guest commentary from business leaders, regulatory experts, and current and former government officials, our podcast examines a range of topics affecting companies operating in highly regulated industries. Whether related to cybersecurity and data privacy, advertising and marketing, financial services and fintech, or emerging technology, Troutman Pepper Lockes regulatory team offers informed counsel to clients, drawing on decades representing clients in their most critical regulatory challenges. Our lawyers rely on their regulatory experience in private practice as well as their tenure in state AG offices, at the FTC, CFPB, U.S. Attorneys Offices, and other federal and state enforcement bodies to develop legal strategies that align with each clients goals. The Regulatory Oversight Podcast allows us to share our acumen and approach directly with our listeners. Language: en Genres: Business, Government Contact email: Get it Feed URL: Get it iTunes ID: Get it Trailer: |
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From Vegas to Venezuela: High-Stakes Predictive Markets
Episode 2
Thursday, 8 January, 2026
In this episode of Regulatory Oversight, host Stephen Piepgrass, who leads Troutman Pepper Locke's Regulatory Investigation Strategy and Enforcement (RISE) practice, is joined by partner Lu Reyes for a deep dive into the national security and enforcement implications of predictive markets. The discussion centers on a headline‑grabbing Polymarket trade that appeared to anticipate former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's capture and yielded roughly $400,000 in profit, raising questions about insider trading and classified information leaks.Stephen and Lu discuss how current regulatory frameworks and enforcement tools struggle to keep pace with emerging predictive markets, particularly where anonymity and digital assets can make it difficult to identify traders or trace funds. Drawing on Lu's experience as a senior national security official in the Bush administration, they explore how markets that allow betting on geopolitical and military outcomes could place a cash bounty on secrets, potentially encouraging espionage, recruitment of insiders, and even attempts to influence events rather than merely predict them.The episode also highlights key differences between predictive markets and traditional gambling, including post hoc event definitions and asymmetric access to information, and considers how regulators, Congress, and market operators might respond. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
