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STUMP - Death and TaxesMeep (Mary Pat Campbell) talks about mortality trends and/or public finance issues, usually with a connection to current events. Author: Mary Pat Campbell (aka Meep)
Meep (Mary Pat Campbell) talks about mortality trends and/or public finance issues, usually with a connection to current events. marypatcampbell.substack.com Language: en Genres: Government, Science Contact email: Get it Feed URL: Get it iTunes ID: Get it |
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Who Survives to 2098?
Monday, 29 April, 2024
Back in December, somebody asked me how many people alive now would be alive in 75 years. The answer: about 15% (for the U.S.). This is not a trivial question — it relates to questions of political decision-making for the long-term, such as public finance. In this episode, I look at the survivorship for 10 years, 25 years, 50 years, and 75 years, and think through what this means.Graphs and spreadsheet below.Episode Links, Graphs, and MoreData and AssumptionsPopulation EstimateReleased 11 April 2024: 2023 Population Estimates by Age and SexSocial Security Mortality Cohort Projections2023 Social Security Trustees Report Life Tables, Cohort by Age and Sex, based on the Alternative 2 mortality probabilities used in the 2023 Trustees Report.Survivorship ProjectionsFirst, here are the graphs of the original population in 2023, and how many of them survive to 2033 (10 years), 2048 (25 years), 2073 (50 years), and 2098 (75 years).This is ignoring any new immigrants or births, just focusing on the current U.S. population and projecting into the future, looking at survivorship.You can see all the weird peaks, and especially, the steep drops in old age.But let me simplify the survivorship understanding with this table:While 15% of the overall population of 2023 makes it to 2098, you can see that is primarily those currently age 20 and younger. Let’s make it even more apparent:Again, this is just projecting the current population. In 75 years, of the current population still around, 93% will be those currently 20 and younger, 7% will be 21-40 years old now, and those of us over 40 will have been long gone.SpreadsheetRelated PostsMay 2015: Illinois Pensions: How Did We Get Here? The 1970 Constitution This is the relevant section of the 1970 Illinois State Constitution:SECTION 5. PENSION AND RETIREMENT RIGHTSMembership in any pension or retirement system of the State, any unit of local government or school district, or any agency or instrumentality thereof, shall be an enforceable contractual relationship, the benefits of which shall not be diminished or impaired.That section has not been amended since 1970.STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to STUMP - Meep on public finance, pensions, mortality and more at marypatcampbell.substack.com/subscribe
