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In the Interim...A podcast on statistical science and clinical trials. Author: Berry
A podcast on statistical science and clinical trials. Explore the intricacies of Bayesian statistics and adaptive clinical trials. Uncover methods that push beyond conventional paradigms, ushering in data-driven insights that enhance trial outcomes while ensuring safety and efficacy. Join us as we dive into complex medical challenges and regulatory landscapes, offering innovative solutions tailored for pharma pioneers. Featuring expertise from industry leaders, each episode is crafted to provide clarity, foster debate, and challenge mainstream perspectives, ensuring you remain at the forefront of clinical trial excellence. Language: en Genres: Health & Fitness, Mathematics, Medicine, Science Contact email: Get it Feed URL: Get it iTunes ID: Get it |
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Mammograms: Death Threats, Hillary Clinton and Lead-Time Bias
Episode 75
Monday, 17 August, 2026
In this episode of "In the Interim…", Dr. Don Berry provides a detailed account of co-chairing the 1997 NIH consensus development conference on mammography for women in their 40s. His conversation with Dr. Scott Berry covers the statistical and clinical complexities of breast cancer screening, addressing lead time and length bias, trial design limitations. Don discusses the panel’s finding, based on randomized trials and meta-analysis, that the average benefit of screening women in their 40s is modest (an estimated 1.4-day average life extension and 18% hazard reduction). The panel recommended individualized decision-making rather than universal screening. The episode follows the reaction: heated debate with radiologists, scrutiny from journalists and policymakers, Senate testimony, and personal threats. Don explains how these findings became distilled into soundbites, evidenced by coverage in The New York Times, Chicago Tribune, and a reference in James Patterson’s Murder Games. The conversation addresses overdiagnosis, false positives, and the consequence some called the “Berry effect”—an observed drop in mammogram rates after the panel’s recommendations.Key HighlightsDon Berry’s NIH consensus conference leadership and approach to breast cancer screening recommendations.Statistical bias and trial limitations inherent in mammography evidence.Meta-analysis findings: 18% hazard reduction; 1.4-day average life extension.Policy guidance supporting individualized patient decision-making over universal screening.Strong backlash from advocacy, media, radiology, and government—including Senate hearings and personal threats.Enduring debates, public misunderstandings, and continued citation of these events in scientific and popular sources.For more, visit us at https://www.berryconsultants.com/
