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Analyst Talk - Before You Leap - High Confidence. Wrong Answer.
Episode 311
Monday, 23 March, 2026

Episode: 00311 Released on March 23, 2026 Description: In this 12th installment of the Before You Leap deep dive series, Randy Stickley joins Jason Elder to break down one of the most critical challenges in intelligence work: the confidence–accuracy gap. Why do analysts sometimes express high confidence in incorrect assessments or low confidence in correct ones? Randy explores the underlying causes, including epistemic limits, time pressure, bias, and the illusion of precision. He also discusses the real-world consequences, from intelligence failures to missed warning signs, and offers practical solutions to improve analytical rigor. This episode is a must-listen for analysts looking to sharpen their critical thinking, improve communication, and produce more reliable intelligence products. 🎧 Listen, share, and keep talking! [Note: Description produced by ChatGPT.] Get to know more about Randy by listening to his episodes on Analyst Talk With Jason Elder: https://www.leapodcasts.com/e/atwje-randy-stickley-the-self-promoter/ https://www.leapodcasts.com/?s=BeforeYouLeap Name Drops: Public Service Announcements: Dr. Andrew Wheeler on his new book: Large Language Models for Mortals https://crimede-coder.com/cdcstore/product/large-language-models-for-mortals/ Promo code: LEAPLLM to get $20 off the book purchase Dr. Eliann Carr on the Crime Analyst Census Survey Link to survey: https://form.jotform.com/251745683433058 Related Links: Rethinking Thought https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DJ82G1PL/ref=tsm_1_fb_lk https://www.amazon.com/Intelligence-Secrets-Mark-M-Lowenthal/dp/1544325061 Richards Heuer – Psychology of Intelligence Analysis https://www.ialeia.org/docs/Psychology_of_Intelligence_Analysis.pdf Mark Lowenthal – Intelligence: From Secrets to Policy https://study.sagepub.com/system/files/lowenthal6e_im.pdf Sherman Kent – Words of Estimative Probability https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Words_of_estimative_probability Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Analysis_of_competing_hypotheses CIA – A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/static/Tradecraft-Primer-apr09.pdf Association(s) Mentioned: Vendor(s) Mentioned: Contact: randall.c.stickleyii@gmail.com; https://www.linkedin.com/in/randall-stickley-36b0a5109/ Transcript: No transcripts due to technical issue Podcast Writer: Podcast Researcher: Theme Song: Written and Recorded by The Rough & Tumble. Find more of their music at www.theroughandtumble.com. Logo: Designed by Kyle McMullen. Please visit www.moderntype.com for any printable business forms and planners. Podcast Email: leapodcasts@gmail.com Podcast Webpage: www.leapodcasts.com Podcast X: @leapodcasts