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Erik van Mechelen - Essays and FictionEvery week, I write essays about the most importa Author: Erik van Mechelen - Essays and Fiction
Every week, I write essays about the most important books I'm reading. As a science fiction writer, I also like to ask What if? as a start to short fiction and novels. Language: en Genres: Education Contact email: Get it Feed URL: Get it iTunes ID: Get it |
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Allons Travailler! 004 - All of Life is a Wager (Super Forecasting by Philip E. Tetlock)
Friday, 15 September, 2017
If you want to learn about cognitive biases all humans share, you might start with Daniel Kahneman’s ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’, or the paper he wrote in 1974 with friend and colleague Amos Tversky, ‘Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases’. Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner have given us an interesting way to practice doing so in their book, Super Forecasting. In their story about a relatively small group of super forecasters who beat IARPA’s own government-backed researchers in a tournament of geopolitical forecasting, Tetlock and Gardner provide a blueprint for beginning one’s own journey of forecasting better than the average human (or at least better than you yourself do now). You can support my work at https://patreon.com/evm/
