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Turnaround TimeAuthor: Turnaround Management Association NYC
Turnaround Time from the Turnaround Management Association NYC features in-depth conversations between some of its more than 10,000 members in 53 chapters worldwide. TMA members work to strengthen the global economy by saving distressed businesses, navigating off-plan events and helping health companies avoid similar pitfalls all incredibly important topics but even more so in today's troubled economy. Learn more about the TMA at turnaround.org. Language: en Genres: Business, Government Contact email: Get it Feed URL: Get it iTunes ID: Get it |
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Professor Altman on Private Credit, LMEs and the State of the Credit Cycle
Episode 24
Monday, 8 June, 2026
Why does a credit-risk model built in 1968 still attract 5,000 hits a day on Bloomberg? And more importantly, what does it tell us about today's market? In this episode, NYU Stern Professor of Finance Emeritus Edward Altman — inventor of the Z-score and a Turnaround Time favorite — returns for a wide-ranging conversation with James H.M. Sprayregen, vice chairman of global strategy and growth at Hilco Global. Professor Altman shares the story behind the model's creation, reasons why it has endured for nearly 60 years, and the role it played in his testimony against the General Motors bailout in 2008. He and Sprayregen then unpack the four stages of the credit cycle and explain why today's market sends mixed signals: benign on the fixed-rate high-yield side, stressed on the floating-rate side. The conversation turns to the $2.5 trillion private credit market and the gap between published default rates of under 2% and Professor Altman's "shadow" default rate, which, once payment-in-kind exercises and non-accruals are included, climbs closer to 10%. They also dig into the roughly 60% LME re-default rate his research suggests, and of course, what all of it means for banks, insurers, pension funds, and the broader question of systemic risk. To learn more about turnaround management, news, and experts, visit turnaround.org. Episode Links View Professor Altman's slides here. Our episode is sponsored by EisnerAmper. Learn more about Ed Altman. Learn more about James H.M. Sprayregen. Learn more about the Turnaround Management Association at turnaround.org. Our music is by Kit and the Calltones.
