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The Dialectic: A Podcast by Fair ObserverAuthor: Fair Observer
Your hosts are Atul Singh, a Rajput from India, and Glenn Carle, a Boston WASP from the US. Atul is the founder, CEO and editor-in-chief of Fair Observer, an independent media organization that has published more than 2,500 voices from over 90 countries. Glenn is an ex-CIA officer who retired as the Deputy National Intelligence Officer and the author of The Interrogator. Atul and Glenn dive deep into issues of importance for our times. Together, the Rajput and the WASP look beneath the surface and look around the corner to make sense of the world. Language: en Genres: News, News Commentary, Politics Contact email: Get it Feed URL: Get it iTunes ID: Get it |
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The China-Taiwan Crisis Explained: History, Xi Jinping and US Deterrence | The Dialectic
Episode 25
Saturday, 14 February, 2026
In this episode of The Dialectic, Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and FOI Senior Partner Glenn Carle, a retired CIA officer who now advises companies, governments and organizations on geopolitical risk, turn their dialectic eastward to examine analyze the sharp escalation in China–Taiwan tensions following the People’s Liberation Army’s large-scale “Justice Mission 2025” exercise. The drills, which encircled Taiwan after a record US arms sale, form part of a broader pattern of air, naval and cyber pressure that has intensified since Xi Jinping consolidated power in 2012. The hosts examine how gray zone tactics and calibrated military displays are steadily shifting the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. The discussion then turns to the deeper political and historical roots of the crisis. They dive deep into the Chinese Civil War of the previous century, the Kuomintang’s retreat to Taiwan in 1949 and Taiwan’s evolution from one-party rule to a vibrant democracy. They also explain the differences between the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The DPP is a left-leaning pro-independence party that struggled against the authoritarian rule of the Kuomintang in the past. Now, the DPP is the ruling party and political divisions between the two parties still run deep. The hosts also explore how nationalism, regime legitimacy and the “One China” doctrine remain central pillars of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), especially as economic growth slows and demographic pressures mount. They also speak about how the CCP has become more aggressive over the last few years, making not only Taiwan but also Japan more nervous. From there, the conversation moves to sovereignty and great power politics. Atul and Glenn make sense of US foreign policy, ranging from the Taiwan Relations Act and strategic ambiguity to recent signals of greater strategic clarity, placing the standoff within the framework of the Thucydides Trap. Finally, they outline the choices Chinese President Xi Jinping, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te and US President Donald Trump face as China’s power peaks. With Taiwan’s domination of high-end semiconductor production and economic prowess, the episode assesses the profound economic and geopolitical consequences of any miscalculation in the Taiwan Strait. 00:00 Justice Mission 2025 10:00 Wolf Warrior Diplomacy 15:00 Salami Slicing 21:00 Nationalists & Communists 32:00 The Democratic Progressive Party 44:00 The Chinese Communist Party 50:00 The Taiwan Strait 55:00 America’s Strategic Posture 1:05:00 China-Taiwan Tensions 1:15:00 What if China Invades Taiwan?
