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My (almost) 100% GUARANTEED March Madness Picks!
Wednesday, 18 March, 2026
That’s right! My men’s and women’s March Madness college basketball picks have a perfect record. I have been been wrong on selecting a champion in every previous season for decades during my adult life. Forget about having a perfect bracket. This former high school basketball player is still seeking his first winning team to watch cutting down the nets at the end of March Madness! That makes me “O-for-Life”. Yes, I somehow cannot bring myself select the overall #1 seed to win it all. Why accept the easy way? That’s much too boring. The NCAA March Madness men’s tournament starts on Thursday. The women tip-off on Friday. Thankfully, I am not someone who donates money to local gambling establishments to profit from my annual embarrassment. If you are so inclined, my NCAA March Madness selections have been posted at the CBS Sports website. Feel free to check the entry called “SwampSwamiSports.com”, and we’ll review how well my picks are doing. Let’s face it. I AM overdue for a winner this year, right? Who is SwampSwami ruining the chances for this year? Given that the statistics may (perhaps) work in my favor with my advancing age, I am selecting (drum roll, please) the University of Houston to win the men’s bracket. This would be U of H’s first national championship in men’s basketball. If you had believed that the famous Phi Slamma Jamma teams of the early 1980’s had won at least one title, you are incorrect. It’s time for the Cougars to finally bring home their first national championship to H-town! In the March Madness women’s tournament, let’s crown…(drum roll again) the LSU Tigers – to capture their second national title under Coach Kim Mulkey. LSU needs some breaks along the way and several of its top players to perform well for the next six games to pull the big upset. This team is sneaky-good. You’ve been warned. For fans of both the University of Houston and LSU, I am NOT trying to jinx your favorite teams! I really like both coaches and both programs. I truly WANT them to win. Unfortunately, I tend to select winners based on my emotions every season. That’s why I am “O-for-Life” in picking a team which eventually gets to cut down the nets. My March Madness picks are like watching Charlie Brown running to kick that football just as Lucy picks up the ball and causes ol’ Chuck to fall on his backside. Let’s start with the Women’s March Madness field The top of the women’s college basketball field is filled with several very impressive teams. UConn is 34-0 and the only unbeaten team in this field. The #2 overall seed in the tournament is UCLA. They are no slouch at 31-1 and received a top seed for their region. Don’t forget the SEC’s dynamic duo of South Carolina and the University of Texas. Both of those #1 seeds are 31-3 entering this week’s first games. The #2 seeds for the women’s tournament are also quite good. SEC gives us another two powerful teams. LSU (27-5) and Vanderbilt (27-4) are worthy of a title run. The Big Ten’s Iowa Hawkeyes (26-6) and Michigan Wolverines (25-6) should be in the mix for at least the first two weekends of the women’s tournament. The #3 seeds on the women’s side are very good, but I don’t expect any team below a #2 seed to win it all. I do believe that at least one of the #3 seeds will make a run into the Elite Eight. Duke (24-8), Ohio State (26-7), TCU (29-5), and Louisville (27-7) are all capable of getting to the cusp of the Final Four. Since 2012, women’s college basketball has been ruled by a very small group of teams with elite coaches and extremely talented players. UConn (5 titles), South Carolina (3) and Kim Mulkey (3 – two at Baylor and one after moving to LSU) have ruled the women’s division. Expect nothing less this year. My women’s Final Four is UConn, South Carolina, Texas, and LSU. That makes three SEC teams ganging up on poor ol’ undefeated Connecticut. I’ll take UConn to take down South Carolina in an epic battle in one semifinal game. LSU (fresh off of defeating #1 regional seed UCLA in the Elite Eight) will subdue its SEC rival Texas in the other. LSU wants no part of South Carolina in this tournament. The Gamecocks have won 19 straight games against the Tigers. LSU will (quietly) be pulling for the Huskies against South Carolina. I think UConn will finally crack under the pressure to post an undefeated season. I envision LSU pulling a thrilling upset to win the women’s title for the second time in school history! March Madness – Men’s top tournament teams Unlike the women’s field, the winner in the men’s division could be fairly wide open this year. Beginning in 2012, only UConn (2014, 2023, and 2024) and Villanova (2016 and 2018) have posted multiple titles during that span. Last year’s champion (Florida) is 26-7 and the East #1 seed this year. They are joined as top seeds by 32-2 Arizona (West), 32-2 Duke (South), and 31-3 Michigan (Midwest). The group of #2 seeds on the men’s side is strong, but no one projects invincibility. East #2 seed UConn (29-5) is joined by West #2 Purdue (27-8), Houston (28-6) in the South, and Midwest #2 team Iowa State (27-7). Despite getting ten teams into the tournament this year, the SEC has only one team (Florida) in the top eight. The Big Ten (nine) came in second with the ACC and Big 12 each securing eight bids apiece. The so-called “Big Four” conferences comprise more than half of this year’s men’s tournament field. Watch out for these early upsets! Let’s dig into the statistics to uncover a few possible upset specials this year. Most teams will shoot about three pointers at around 35%. The 2-point shots fall around 45-47% of the time. Surprisingly, most of the teams in the field shoot free throws at 71-75%. So, how can you pick an upset when so many of the teams are fairly evenly matched? Easy! Find a team has a clear advantage in at least one category. If that team is also playing fairly close to home, there is yet another advantage which may be worth a few points. Here are three possible upsets in the opening round. Let’s begin with #11 VCU (27-7) over #6 North Carolina (24-8). The Rams from Richmond, VA are on a six-game winning streak, while UNC has lost two straight. VCU shoots 3-pointers 3% better than the Tar Heels (37% to 34%). The game is being played in Greenville, South Carolina. Though UNC will have more fans in the building, I sense an upset here! I also like #9 Utah State over #8 Villanova (Friday, 3:10 PM on TNT). The Aggies shoot 3% better than the Wildcats on two-pointers. This game is being played in San Diego. Utah is much closer than Villanova fans needing to travel 2,744 miles from Philadelphia. Ever heard of the St. Louis Billikens? According to the school’s website, a billiken is a mythical creature representing “things as they ought to be” on campus. Uh…sure! St. Louis of the Atlantic-10 Conference went an impressive 28-5 this year to earn a #9 seed against #8 Georgia (22-10) of the SEC. The Billikens shoot 6% better than the Bulldogs from the 3-point line and 4% better on two pointers. Down goes Georgia! Men’s Final Four Picks! I expect two of the #1 seeds (Duke and Arizona) to make it to Indianapolis for the Final Four. SwampSwami is calling for the University of Houston (a 2-seed) to upset #1 Florida in the South Region finals. One other big surprise will have #3 seed Virginia (29-5) pulling the upset to beat top ranked Michigan in the Midwest finals. That puts Houston against Duke in one semifinal, and Arizona versus Virginia in the other. I’m picking Houston’s defense to upset Duke. Arizona should prevail against upstart Virginia in the other semifinal game. The Arizona Wildcats have beaten Houston twice in the regular season. I expect Kelvin Sampson is saving his best coaching for last. The Cougars will subdue the Arizona Wildcats to win the school’s first national title in men’s basketball. Enjoy March Madness! The post My (almost) 100% GUARANTEED March Madness Picks! appeared first on SwampSwamiSports.com.
