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the Joshua Schall Audio ExperienceAuthor: Joshua Schall
Welcome to the Joshua Schall Audio Experience On my podcast, youll hear episodes of my popular short-form Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) news segment "Consumed", a long-form CPG entrepreneurship interview segment "Formula For:", deeper dive segments "Deep Dish CPG", public speaking engagements, and any of my new and current thoughts that I record specifically for this audio experience! Leave a review on iTunes and let me know what you think! Language: en Genres: Business Contact email: Get it Feed URL: Get it iTunes ID: Get it |
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GHOST vs. C4: Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Energy Drinks BATTLE You Didn't Know About!
Friday, 31 October, 2025
Show me the incentive…and I’ll show you the outcome! So, based on the timing…you might assume that introductory statement indicates something about how $7 billion in new private equity financing would sweeten the Keurig Dr Pepper business spilt, support the JDE Peet’s deal, or maybe even feed off an activist investor. Though, it’s important to recall I’m not an equity analyst or KDP individual investor, which means I admittedly wasn’t super concerned about certain negative consequences of the transaction…or how using a tax-free Reverse Morris Trust would’ve been more favorable to shareholders compared to the agreed upon structure ultimately benefitting JAB Holding Company. And while I obviously understand “an elevated debt load” is interconnected (and influential) to the “North Star” transformation work required to establish two strong, successful companies…I intentionally looked past capitalization strategies and will do so again this content piece. Instead, I'll draw upon my last 15+ years of deep domain expertise…being prominently positioned within the emerging and intersecting CPG categories of food, beverages, and dietary supplements, to uncover a critical misalignment that could cause major long-term KDP “Beverage Co.” concerns. As mentioned within its recent Investor Day presentation, KDP wants to establish growth platforms in large and attractive categories. Since “energy” is the fastest growing $10B+ liquid refreshment beverage category…it’s obviously the most important inside KDP. And we’re going to focus exclusively on dynamics between Nutrabolt and GHOST that I originally brought up in October 2024 when KDP announced it was acquiring GHOST Lifestyle. But maybe within that content piece (or at least shortly after), I expressed my belief that KDP would eventually seek corrective measures…most likely fixing any potential incentive misalignment through further investment in Nutrabolt. However, since last year's KDP and GHOST deal announcement…A LOT has happened from Bloom Sparkling Energy drinks becoming a categorical superstar and (as a result) Nutrabolt acquiring majority stake in Bloom Nutrition to the beforementioned complicated KDP business separation plans. And there’s another interesting tidbit popping up but (either way) change at this level predictably raised questions recently from you guys (and beverage industry trade publications) asking if I had an evolved theory surrounding how KDP might design a new system where Nutrabolt and GHOST have aligned incentives. And since I wouldn't expect any substantial "Beverage Co." investment activity until the KDP and JDE Peet's transaction is complete (and subsequent separation event occurs), I'll discuss if Nutrabolt should be strategically “patient” or “aggressive” as the “future optionality” window opens after KDP “Beverage Co.” matures independently. But despite obvious competitive similarities, this shouldn’t be interpreted as some kind of “GHOST versus Nutrabolt” content piece, as each company is defining their future through different strategic vectors. Instead, I hope you recognized the “hidden risk” regarding how Big CPG continues to reshape its portfolio architecture. Today, Big CPG wants an increasingly larger amount of exposure to this four-way intersection of taste, convenience, nutrition, and functionality. We are currently at the stage where Big CPG portfolios acquire (or partner with) multiple sports nutrition competitors across growth platforms…and could create the type of challenges outlined within this content piece.
