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Chuck’s Commentary - Texas Primary Result Is Bad News For Republicans + Top 5 All-Time Texas Elections
Wednesday, 4 March, 2026
Chuck Todd breaks down the Texas primary results and finds a political landscape that should terrify the Republican establishment. Ken Paxton and John Cornyn are headed to a runoff on the GOP side, but the headline number is stunning: Democrats posted a higher overall vote total than Republicans in the Texas primary, a seismic signal in what has long been the country's biggest red state. He credits Talarico's viral Colbert moment with giving him a massive boost, notes that Latino voters broke decisively for Talarico over Jasmine Crockett — who ran an unconventional campaign and is unlikely to concede quickly — and argues that a Paxton vs. Talarico general election would genuinely put Texas in play. He walks through the strategic calculus: history favors Paxton in a runoff, Cornyn has outperformed polling but a Cornyn nomination would draw less national Democratic investment in the race, and Democrats should have the budget to compete in Texas regardless — because Texas is "nice to have" for Democrats but "must have" for Republicans, and if Democrats win even once there, it opens the floodgates. He also flags Dan Crenshaw losing after failing to secure Trump's endorsement, the razor-thin two-vote margin for the state senate campaign in North Carolina, and a broader pattern of bad developments piling up for the GOP — capped by Trump stoking voter skepticism with an unpopular Iran war. His verdict: this is the worst possible start to an election cycle for Republicans, because it's easy to start a war and very hard to end one. Finally, Chuck lists his ToddCast Top 5 All-Time Texas statewide elections and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Go to https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 01:00 Ken Paxton & John Cornyn headed to a runoff 02:30 Democrats had a higher vote total than Republicans in Texas primary 03:45 Talarico’s moment with Stephen Colbert gave him a huge boost 05:00 Several house races headed to a run off 07:00 Latino voters broke fairly decisively for Talarico 07:45 Crockett didn’t run a conventional campaign 08:30 Crockett is unlikely to concede quickly 10:00 We never got the full story on the Colbert moment 11:15 Fighter vs Uniter is the divide amongst Democrats 13:00 If Cornyn can stay ahead of Paxton, that will matter to Trump 14:30 Talarico being the nominee will make establishment Republicans nervous 16:00 History says it’s more likely that Paxton wins the runoff 18:00 Cornyn has outperformed the polling 18:30 With Paxton & Talarico as the nominees, Texas is in play 19:30 Do senate Democrats play in the Republican runoff? 20:30 If it’s Cornyn vs. Talarico, the national party won’t help Talarico as much 22:00 Will Dems spend on Alaska, Iowa and Nebraska? 23:15 Dems should have the budget to target Texas 24:00 Texas is “nice to have” for Dems, it’s “must have” for Republicans 25:30 If Democrats win once in Texas, it opens the door for more wins 26:45 Two vote margin for the state senate president in North Carolina 27:45 Dan Crenshaw didn’t get Trump endorsement and lost 29:15 Bad developments keep happening for the Republican party 30:15 Trump is only stoking voter skepticism with Iran war 31:30 It’s easy to start a war, it’s hard to end one 32:00 Worst possible start to an election cycle for the Republicans 41:30 ToddCast Top 5 All-Time statewide campaigns in Texas history 43:30 #5 2006 Governor’s race 49:00 #4 1994 Governor’s race 52:00 #3 1924 Governor’s race 55:30 #2 1962 special election for senate 1:00:15 #1 1948 Democratic senate primary 1:07:45 Honorable mentions 1:10:15 Ask Chuck 1:10:30 Take on Pete Hegseth’s briefing on the Iran war? What are the objectives? 1:16:45 Why is a war powers resolution needed? How can congress restrain Trump? 1:20:00 Will this war be better received if not launched during tax season? 1:24:30 Explaining complex political & world events to your kids?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
