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You Have Until 2031: What Happens When Population Goes Negative?
Episode 403
Thursday, 26 February, 2026
There’s a ticking time bomb for the U.S. housing market that nobody is talking about. It’s the biggest existential threat to home prices and housing demand, and it (arguably) can’t be stopped. The question is, how long do we have until it happens? Today, we’re talking about population: what happens when the U.S. population begins to decline, and the need for housing falls year after year? Deaths are already set to outpace births by 2031, meaning we’re just five short years away from this risky scenario becoming reality. What happens to home prices? Will millions of homes sit empty? Which markets will see their values fall the fastest? Is real estate still safe to invest in? Dave’s giving a masterclass on the population crisis, and how the housing market will be affected. From birth rates to immigration, baby boomers passing away (and passing down their houses), and cities that will face the biggest demographic headwinds, this is what every investor needs to know before 2031. In This Episode We Cover What happens to the housing market once the population begins to decline? Will our housing shortage flip to a supply glut as demand is forced to fall? The one thing propping up our population and how it’s starting to falter Short, medium, and long-term housing forecasts as population decline increases Lessons from Japan, Germany, and Italy: Where do home prices fall the fastest once populations decline? Markets that will be the safest when the population finally begins to flip And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area U.S. Immigration Crisis: What It Really Means for Housing Markets and Investors Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Grab Dave’s Book, "Real Estate by the Numbers" Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-403. Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
