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TelltalesPodcast by Top Mark Capital Author: Mike
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China and the Cash Flow Memo: From FedEx to Fed Funds (e2607)
Wednesday, 11 February, 2026
SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, the team runs through the latest Cash Flow Memo and the three exhibits—U.S. government finances, natural gas, and oil—then closes with the massive Big Tech CapEx wave and what it means for chips, data centers, and geopolitics.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo overview Quick setup on the episode’s focus across energy, technology, and healthcare—and how to use the weekly memo alongside the exhibits.[00:19] Disclaimer Important investing and information-use disclaimer before the discussion begins.[00:35] Exhibit C: Oil supply/demand and the Iran “risk premium” Oil prices look meaningfully higher due to potential military action risk, with negotiations likely stretched out—keeping volatility elevated even if the base case is “status quo.”[02:00] Why WTI in the low-60s may persist The group discusses slower global demand growth (especially China) and how surplus capacity could take longer to work off, supporting a range-bound outlook despite the market’s inherent volatility.[03:08] Exhibit B: Natural gas—cold winter, but price disappointment Even with extreme weather, the gas strip remains below the hoped-for $4 level; the conversation centers on why demand isn’t the problem, and why supply growth keeps winning.[05:12] Gas-to-power, coal, and LNG policy shifts Coal plant dynamics, evolving renewable incentives, and LNG export growth (plus new authorizations) reshape the demand mix—while associated gas from the Permian continues to pressure the market.[08:31] Exhibit A: U.S. government cash flow and the rate/issuance puzzle The team discusses balance sheet drawdown ambitions, the risk of stressing long rates, and why Treasury might lean toward shorter maturities even as deficits remain large.[11:06] Page 17: FedEx, UPS, Nike, Costco, Lennar A quick pass on how China and global trade show up differently across logistics, sourcing-heavy consumer brands, retail supply chains, and homebuilding inputs.[12:52] Pages 5–6: Cable vs Telco competition heats up Charter/Comcast and AT&T/Verizon/T-Mobile are less China-exposed today, but face intensifying competition as cable pushes wireless and telcos push fiber and fixed wireless.[14:45] A wild card: SpaceX as a future “telco page” peer The team flags how Starlink could change the competitive landscape—especially for last-mile connectivity.[15:06] Page 16: Restaurants, beverages, and travel—how “international” matters McDonald’s, Starbucks, Chipotle, Celsius, and Hilton spark a discussion on global exposure, brand localization risk, and the long runway (or limits) for beverage expansion abroad.[16:56] Page 7: Payments—MasterCard, Visa, PayPal Why global card networks can be insulated from China in one sense (local payment ecosystems) while still benefiting from worldwide commerce growth.[17:36] Page 15: Pharma and biotech supply chains The group highlights China’s role in inputs and manufacturing, the incentives to reshore, and why smaller biotechs may keep outsourcing due to cost and cash constraints.[20:21] Page 8 + beyond: Retail sourcing and U.S. industrial “moats” Walmart/Target and home improvement retailers feel China most through goods sourcing, while industrial leaders (and aerospace suppliers) raise questions about competition, approvals, and future global demand.[22:51] Page 13: Banks and brokers—global exposure in context A quick look at JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Interactive Brokers—where international activity matters, but may not dominate cash flow.[24:27] Energy pages: why China isn’t the main factor here The group wraps the memo tour with a fast view of energy coverage and why China is less central for the companies highlighted.[25:48] Big Tech CapEx shock: $700B+ and what it implies Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft (and more) are spending at nation-GDP scale; the team debates what’s driving it, how it’s funded, and why “not spending it all” could even be market-positive.[26:41] Chips, capacity, and the TSMC bottleneck question If everyone depends on the same advanced manufacturing base, can supply keep up—and what does that mean for timelines, pricing power, and who benefits?[27:47] Data centers: land, regulation, and the real constraints Beyond chips, the discussion moves to land availability, state-level pushback, and how power procurement and cost allocation can shape where and how fast capacity gets built.[31:09] Cost anatomy of AI infrastructure and the “power isn’t the limiter” view A breakdown of what it takes to build data center capacity—power vs shells vs racks/chips—and why the group believes power can be built out if policy and incentives align.[33:26] Taiwan geopolitics and investing under uncertainty The team closes on Taiwan risk framing, long timelines, and why outcomes may be pursued only when “victory” is assured—military or political.If you’re using the Cash Flow Memo, drop a comment with the tickers you want covered next week—and subscribe so you don’t miss the next exhibit-driven deep dive.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. 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