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State SecretsAuthor: The Cipher Brief
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Lithuania's Foreign Minister: 'Western Restraint Invites Russian Aggression
Tuesday, 18 November, 2025
Lithuania's Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys joins Cipher Brief CEO Suzanne Kelly in Washington with a blunt warning: Western military restraint is encouraging, not deterring, the Kremlin. Budrys explains why Lithuania is raising defense spending to more than 5% of GDP by 2026—the highest in the democratic world—and pushing NATO toward offensive deterrence and denial "from the very first inch." He details Belarus' role as a state-enabled criminal actor, from weaponized migration to smuggling operations using high-altitude balloons that forced Lithuania to shut down its main international airport, and why Minsk deserves tougher sanctions. Budrys also walks through recent Russian gray-zone activity in the Baltic Sea and NATO airspace, arguing that only stronger posture—not de-escalation—has stopped undersea infrastructure attacks and drone incursions. The Minister lays out what a potential Ukraine ceasefire would mean for the Baltics, why Vilnius is committing 0.25% of GDP annually to Ukraine's security for ten years, and how Russian forces redeployed from Ukraine could reshape the threat on NATO's eastern flank. He also highlights Lithuania's energy break from Moscow—now sourcing 75% of its LNG from the U.S.—and its push for tougher economic security policies toward China as it prepares to hold the EU presidency in 2027. A candid, front-line view of deterrence, gray-zone warfare, and the future of the transatlantic alliance.
