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Stock Market UpdatesAuthor: HDFC Securities
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Opening Bell - 12/05/2026
Episode 341
Monday, 11 May, 2026
The U.S.-Iran Ceasefire on the Edge of Collapse, Markets to shift focus to US-China SummitThe S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh all-time highs - 7,412 and 26,274, respectively — as strength in technology and semiconductors outweighed investor unease over the collapse of Iran ceasefire talks.Market sentiment remains buoyed by the belief that the AI supercycle is in its early stages, with major firms like Micron reaching new record levels.After President Trump rejected Tehran's counterproposal as "totally unacceptable," Brent crude surged to $105 per barrel. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.41% as markets repriced for inflation risk ahead of Tuesday's April CPI release, which economists expect to show a 3.7% year-over-year gain. The euro held flat against the dollar at $1.18, repeatedly testing but failing to clear that resistance level, with currency markets effectively in a holding pattern until the inflation print.President Trump and Xi Jinping are set for sweeping talks covering Iran, nuclear policy, trade, and AI — one of the most consequential U.S.-China summits in years. The breadth of the agenda signals a deliberate thaw, with both sides engaging across every major axis of strategic and economic tension. Executives from Apple, Boeing, Citi, Tesla, and Meta are joining Trump in China, one of the most significant corporate delegations ever to accompany a sitting president. Their presence confirms that trade normalisation and market access sit at the heart of the U.S. agenda. The outcome of the summit could materially shift global markets, energy dynamics, and the AI race simultaneously.The Indian rupee began the week on a weak footing, depreciating by 83 paise to close at a record low amid escalating geopolitical tensions. The decline was primarily driven by a breakdown in U.S.-Iran peace negotiations, which led to a surge in crude oil prices and strengthened the U.S. dollar’s safe-haven appeal. Domestic sentiment was further dampened by Prime Minister Modi’s “Nation First” austerity call, urging reduced fuel consumption and postponement of non-essential foreign travel to conserve foreign exchange reserves.Nifty extended its losing streak for the third consecutive session, declining sharply by 360 points to settle at 23815, weighed down by rising crude prices and a weakening rupee. Nifty is likely to breach the critical support level of 23,800 at the open. The next strong support comes in at the 23,550-23500 range. On the upside, the 24000–24125 zone is expected to serve as immediate resistance.Indian markets are likely to open lower today on weak global cues.
