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Excess ReturnsAuthor: Excess Returns
Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us. Language: en Contact email: Get it Feed URL: Get it iTunes ID: Get it Trailer: |
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The Last Moat | Chris Mayer and Ian Cassel on the Stock Picking Edge AI Can’t Replicate
Wednesday, 6 May, 2026
This episode of our new showThe 100 Year Thinkers brings together Chris Mayer and Ian Cassel for a deep discussion on long-term stock picking, microcap investing, business quality, AI disruption, management teams, and the behavioral skills that separate great investors from great analysts.They explore why the edge in investing may increasingly come from judgment, presence, relationships, patience, and the ability to hold the right businesses through uncertainty.Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers on SpotifySubscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers on AppleTopics CoveredWhy being present with management teams may still be an investor edge in the age of AIHow microcap investing differs from small-cap, mid-cap and large-cap investingWhy talking to management can build conviction but also create biasHow Chris Mayer thinks about vertical market software, mission-critical systems and AI disruptionWhy AI may become table stakes rather than a durable competitive advantageHow small companies can use AI to improve workflows, sales, inventory and productivityWhy many microcaps have short shelf lives and rarely become true long-term compoundersThe role of intelligent fanatics, owner-operators and repeat winners in great investmentsWhy management transitions can create powerful microcap opportunitiesThe difference between being a great analyst and being a great investorWhy execution, position sizing, selling losers and holding winners matter more than hit rateHow Matt and Bogumil apply the lessons to AI, business quality and the limits of small business scalabilityTimestamps00:49 Introducing Chris Mayer, Ian Cassel and 100 Year Thinkers04:59 Ian Cassel’s first management meeting and XM Satellite Radio09:00 Why management meetings deepen understanding but can also mislead14:32 Chris Mayer on the real edge in long-term investing18:40 Mission-critical software, systems of record and AI disruption22:45 How microcap companies are using AI in real businesses27:02 AI as table stakes and when disruption creates opportunity31:29 Why most microcaps have short shelf lives35:51 Finding Tom Brady before the market knows he is Tom Brady40:53 Why owner-operators and intelligent fanatics matter45:03 Second-in-command leaders, repeat winners and chips on shoulders49:27 Analyst vs investor and the missing skills of stock picking54:00 Using data to identify investor strengths, weaknesses and decision errors58:14 Position sizing and letting small positions earn the right to grow01:03:00 Peter Lynch, stocks as businesses and learning to think like an owner01:07:00 AI, human judgment and the limits of automation01:11:00 Why not every small business can become the next Facebook01:15:00 Where to follow Bogumil and the 100 Year Thinkers series
