 |
An Ounce - For Your ConsiderationAuthor: Jim Fugate
Discover hidden stories from historybite-sized, clever tales that challenge what you thought you knew. At An Ounce, we uncover the little moments that quietly changed everything, surprising truths, and fascinating facts you wont hear elsewhere.Im Jim Fugateretired firefighter, lifelong learner, and an outside-the-box thinker who loves sharing historys hidden gems. These quick, engaging stories dont take themselves too seriously, wont steal your precious time, and might just make you feel a little bit smarter.I hope youll join a community of curious minds who enjoy a fresh take on historywhere conversation is always open and everyones invited. Language: en-us Contact email: Get it Feed URL: Get it iTunes ID: Get it |
Listen Now...
It Made Sense at the Time: Why Smart Decisions Fail
Episode 4
Thursday, 29 January, 2026
“It made sense at the time.” We use this phrase to explain bad decisions, failed plans, and historical disasters. But most of the time, it’s true — and that’s what makes failure so hard to see coming.History is full of choices that look baffling in hindsight and perfectly reasonable in the moment. This episode explores why smart people make decisions that later seem impossible to understand — and how good ideas quietly age into bad outcomes.By the way, if you’d like more stories like this, you’re always welcome to hang around and binge for a bit.CHAPTER / TIMESTAMP ________________________________________00:00 — OPEN:01:00 — THE PHRASE THE ENDS DISCUSSION02:18 — THE PATTERN: FIRE03:10 — THE PATTERN: TITANIC03:36 — THE PATTERN: Financial Bubbles04:38 — THE PATTERN REPEATS 05:12 — HINDSIGHT06:17 — AVOIDING FAILURE MODE06:58 — TAKING IT PERSONAL07:25 — AN OUNCEAdditional Reading and Reference1) Hindsight Bias — FoundationalFischhoff (1975)Hindsight ≠ Foresight: The Effect of Outcome Knowledge on Judgment Under Uncertaintyhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/1738364________________________________________2) Decision-Making Under Uncertainty — Cognitive MechanismThinking, Fast and Slow — Daniel Kahnemanhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thinking,_Fast_and_Slow________________________________________3) Disaster Psychology — Human Behavior Under ThreatWhy People Don’t Heed Warningshttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7153921/This directly supports:• Titanic behavior• evacuation hesitation• normalcy bias• risk calibration________________________________________4) System Failure — Why Collapse HappensHigh Reliability Organizations (Weick & Sutcliffe)https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1765804/________________________________________5) Psychological Pattern SupportNarrative Fallacy — Talebhttps://fs.blog/narrative-fallacy/________________________________________6) Risk Psychology AuthorityRisk Perception — Paul Slovichttps://www.researchgate.net/publication/226437543#DecisionMaking #Psychology #HumanBehavior #Failure #History #Disasters #Hindsight
