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Shadow Warrior by Rajeev SrinivasanIndia, Innovation, Foreign Affairs: This is a podcast from the point of view of a resident of India who spent many years in the US, now teaching innovation, earlier a tech strategist Author: Prof. Rajeev Srinivasan
An Indian/Hindu nationalist perspective on world affairs; as well as on technology and innovation; conversations with experts and with people just like you and me. rajeevsrinivasan.substack.com Language: en Genres: News, News Commentary, Tech News Contact email: Get it Feed URL: Get it iTunes ID: Get it |
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Ep. 156: The Second Coming of Trump: The Center Cannot Hold
Saturday, 1 March, 2025
A version of this essay was published by firstpost.com at https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/shadow-warrior-what-zelenskys-debacle-says-about-us-newfound-clarity-13867967.htmlThe tongue-lashing received by Vladimir Zelensky in the Oval Office, in full view of the media, was a point of inflection. It highlighted something that we had suspected: the end of the ‘European Century’ (or two or three), wherein they had risen to be the Masters of the Universe. Trump is emphasizing that the Atlantic was a 19th century story; with the rise of the US, the Pacific was the story of the 20th century; and the 21st finds the Indian Ocean rising.Zelensky’s debacle was not the only pointer: Keir Starmer of the UK, despite some polite talk about the mythical ‘special relationship’, was told sharply by Vance that there is no more free speech in the UK, and that it affects American technology companies and citizens. Let us remember also how Elon Musk lambasted the UK for its Pakistani rape gangs, and the limp-wristed reaction of its authorities. Trump also told Starmer “That’s enough!”JD Vance, again, spoke some home truths to the Europeans at the Munich Security Conference, telling them their problems are home-grown: excessive migration, lack of democratic values, and censorship.All this is shocking to the supercilious elites of Europe, who are now seeing their cozy world collapse in front of their eyes: no more free-loading, no more Uncle Sam to the rescue. Suddenly, NATO is meaningless, and decades of Greta Thunberg and V-dem style lecturing, virtue-mongering and pontification are coming back to bite them on the backside.They must be recalling William Blake’s apocalyptic vision in The Second Coming. Their world is indeed falling apart.Turning and turning in the widening gyreThe falcon cannot hear the falconer;Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhereThe ceremony of innocence is drowned;The best lack all conviction, while the worstAre full of passionate intensity.It’s hard to blame the Europeans. They have forgotten how it was only yesterday, as it were, that they were being hounded by the Barbary pirates, enslaved and turned into janissaries by the Turks. I read how the author of Don Quixote had been himself captured, enslaved for five years, and ransomed in 1580 for 300 gold coins, worth some $40,000 today.The European Century has made Europeans, and us, Fourth Worlders or those formerly colonized by them (as V S Naipaul put it), forget that Europe is just a backwater, a mere peninsula, an appendage, to Asia. It is now reverting to just “Northwest Asia”. For most of recorded history, Europe was an uncivilized land of savages; it was only the lucky accident of the Industrial Revolution that gave it the wherewithal to dominate the world.But that is in the past: the economic center of gravity of the world has indeed moved from the Atlantic to Asia.Source: The Economist.comThe illusion that America is obligated to support Europe, and also to fight Russia to the bitter end as part of the Cold War, was nurtured by Atlanticist Eastern Europeans exercised by an age-old blood feud: that between the Russian Orthodox Church on the one hand, and Catholics and other Protestant churches on the other hand.Those certainties are now falling by the wayside, as Trump pivots to the Pacific and Indian Oceans, as well as back to isolationist Fortress America. As Zelensky did mention in his tirade, America has the good fortune to have two oceans around it, a serious moat. The US has been gaslighted for a long time by nose-in-the-air Europeans, most especially the mischief-makers at the UK’s Whitehall (who are the real Deep State). But that’s wearing off, and the blinkers are falling from their eyes. Sadly for Zelensky, he will be the first one affected by this new-found clarity.Zelensky also made several rookie mistakes. First, you don’t go to your benefactor’s lair (ie. the US Oval Office) dressed in a sweatshirt. Second, you don’t talk over Trump. Third, you don’t get into a shouting match in English with native speakers when English is your second language: you might miss the nuances of “you don’t hold any cards”, for instance. Fourth, and most importantly, you don’t trust Starmer, Macron, etc. and take up cudgels with Trump.The near-simultaneous “toolkit” tweets from a lot of EU grandees suggests they gaslighted Zelensky into his suicidal bit of bravado against Trump in the Oval Office. They used the exact same words! And Trump doesn’t take slights lightly.The implications are dire. The Ukraine War is as good as over, because the Europeans alone cannot (or will not) supply Zelensky with enough weaponry to hold off Russia indefinitely. The most likely outcome is a ceasefire followed by a standstill agreement: what Ukrainian territory Russia currently holds it will continue to hold; Ukraine will be de jure partitioned. The rest is negotiable.If the Europeans had any sense, they would patch up with Russia. NATO as we know it will come to an end, and EU+Russia is a pretty powerful force, and neither will have to kowtow to China. With the US out of the picture, divided EU and Russia will both fall into the dhritarashtra alinganam of sweet-talking China. To their ultimate detriment, of course.It is good to contrast Trump’s treatment of all these Europeans with his much gentler treatment of the Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba, and the Indian PM Narendra Modi, both Quad partners. He was polite and businesslike with them. Also, when a reporter asked about AUKUS, the brain-dead partnership with the UK that Biden dragged another Quad partner, Australia, into, his response was: “What’s that?”There were early glimpses of a Trump foreign policy taking shape, as I mentioned in two prior columns: Chronicles of a Foreign Policy Foretold and Trump’s America and Modi’s India. Now things are clearer: there’s a new Sheriff in town, and things are going to be different. But, William Blake notwithstanding, it’s not the end of the world. We will all carry on.1000 words, 1 Mar 2025 This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit rajeevsrinivasan.substack.com/subscribe
