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The IRF PodcastAuthor: irfpodcast
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“A Resurgent Japan and the Economic Outlook for East Asia”, Paul Cavey, East Asia Econ
Episode 108
Sunday, 30 November, 2025
David Osman of IRF is joined by Paul Cavey, the Founder of East Asia Econ. ----more---- In this podcast, Paul Cavey discusses the various cyclical and structural themes that are influencing the economic outlook for China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. He explains why he thinks that the overall deflationary forces within the Chinese economy may be easing and why there is scope for some cautious optimism about China’s economic outlook relative to the current downbeat consensus expectations. Paul then highlights the key issues that are impacting on the main currencies in the region, noting the significance of the weakness of the Chinese renminbi and the Japanese yen in recent years. He goes on to discuss the two shocks that have had an impact on Japan’s economy, the US tariff shock and the pick-up in the annual rate of Japanese inflation. He assesses what these shocks could mean in terms of the policies of the new prime minister, with respect to Japan’s interest rates and the exchange rate, given the more stimulative stance of fiscal policy. Paul then discusses the impact of the global A.I. trend on the regional semiconductor sector in general, and on the Taiwanese economy and the South Korean economy in particular. Paul Cavey has been analysing the economies of East Asia, with a particular focus on China, for over 25 years. Previously Paul was the Chief Regional Economist at several leading firms, notably the Economist Intelligence Unit, Macquarie Securities and Wellington Management. East Asia Econ provides high-quality analysis of macro and market issues in China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan.
