 |
Special BriefingAuthor: Volcker Alliance & Penn IUR
Brought to you by the Volcker Alliance and the University of Pennsylvania Institute for Urban Research, Special Briefing examines the fiscal conditions of cities, counties, and states since the arrival of COVID-19 and how theyre impacted by decisions from Washington. We bring federal, state, and local government leaders together with prominent researchers, economists, and investors to reflect on todays most salient and critical public finance issues. Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance. Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR. Special Briefing is made possible by funding from The Century Foundation, the Volcker Alliance, and members of the Penn IUR Advisory Board. Language: en-us Genres: Business, Government, Investing Contact email: Get it Feed URL: Get it iTunes ID: Get it Trailer: |
Listen Now...
Special Briefing on the Outlook for 2026: How States & Cities Will Adapt to Wrenching Change
Episode 64
Friday, 9 January, 2026
As a year marked by fiscal uncertainty and shifting federal priorities comes to a close, state and local governments are grappling with structural changes. For a discussion of how federal retrenchment, artificial intelligence(AI)-driven growth, and sharply rising municipal market borrowing market will shape state and local finances in the year ahead, Penn IUR and the Volcker Alliance convened a panel of experts for “Special Briefing on the Outlook for 2026: How States & Cities Will Adapt to Wrenching Change” on December 16, 2025. William Glasgall, Penn IUR Fellow and Public Finance Adviser at the Volcker Alliance, and Susan Wachter, Co‑Director of Penn IUR, co‑hosted the Special Briefing. Panelists include: • Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management • Matt Fabian, Partner at Municipal Market Analytics • Eric Kim, Senior Director for U.S. Public Finance Ratings at Fitch Ratings NOTABLE QUOTES Slok: “The outlook for 2026 is actually beginning to look better and better. GDP growth will begin to accelerate over the coming quarters, and perhaps most importantly for this conversation and for muni bonds, the level of yields and the level of inflation are likely going to stay higher for longer, simply because we still have an inflation level that is at around 3%, not quite back to the Fed's 2% target.” Slok: “the trade war was dragging things down, but at the same time, AI and data center build-out was pushing things in the opposite direction” Slok: “the biggest risk to this outlook is that it comes with a likelihood that the Federal Reserve will have to come back and raise interest rates again.” Fabian: “I am optimistic that issuance will continue to grow. We think that there's going to be another record year ahead of us in 2026, as far as dollars of bonds sold. We think that the market will internally remain well lubricated, with nice flows of investor cash into the sector.” Fabian: “bullish on issuance, bullish on distribution, less bullish on prices.” Kim: “Our sector outlook for U.S. state and local governments in 2026 is neutral. We expect credit conditions to be generally in line with the environment we saw in 2025. That doesn't mean it's entirely benign, and it doesn't necessarily mean things will be easy.” Kim: “our house view is still for economic growth. We don't anticipate a recession…but there’s definitely risk there. We're anticipating 1.9% economic growth for 2026, picking up a little bit in 2027 at 2.1%.” Fabian: “State and local governments will have the option of backfilling federal spending withdrawals, and that is likely to happen in many cases. State and local taxes rising in order to help pay for this is a given.” Kim: “There are going to be more challenges in having state governments really fill all the holes that are potentially going to be left.” Glasgall: “To paraphrase [Supreme Court] Justice Louis Brandeis in the 1930s, states are the laboratories of democracy. We're going to see different solutions emerge. AI is going to be part of this in delivering services. We're going to see different ways to deliver services at a lower cost… There are going to be a lot of opportunities for experimentation and creativity.”
