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The Julia La Roche ShowAuthor: Julia La Roche
Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework. Language: en Contact email: Get it Feed URL: Get it iTunes ID: Get it Trailer: |
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#360 Michael Howell: We've Hit An Inflection Point — We're In The Speculation Phase And Turbulence Is Coming For Markets
Episode 360
Friday, 17 April, 2026
Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of Capital Wars, returns to The Julia La Roche Show, returns seven months after his last appearance to update his Global Liquidity call. The peak he flagged for Q3 2025 has held, and the cycle now points to a trough in 2027. Despite the Iran conflict and market volatility, Michael argues the world economy is actually holding up better than the media suggests — but that's almost the problem, because money flowing into the real economy is draining it from financial markets. He explains why the current rally is phoney, why bond term premia falling is actually a flight to safety signal not a selloff, and why we're in the Speculation phase — where economies feel strongest right before things get difficult. He walks through his full asset allocation traffic light system, the debt liquidity nexus, why the Fed and Treasury may be secretly targeting the MOVE index to protect the basis trade and collateral system, the COVID-era debt maturity wall now coming due, and why raising interest rates in today's world may actually be stimulative — not contractionary — because the government is the biggest borrower and higher rates just transfer more income to the private sector. He closes on Treasury QE replacing Fed QE and what it means for Bitcoin.Links: Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercapSubstack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/303039290200:00 — Introduction and welcome back Michael01:15 — Where we are in the liquidity cycle — asset allocation clock and the five to six year cycle05:15 — Julia asks about the phoney rally — Michael digs in05:35 — The AI-based World GDP model — Iran far less damaging than tariffs or COVID09:37 — All money anywhere must be somewhere — why a stronger real economy drains financial markets13:18 — The sine wave estimated 25 years ago — peak Q3 2025, trough 202715:37 — Daily granular liquidity data — the downtrend confirmed17:16 — How to stay positioned without getting whipsawed by relief rallies18:49 — What bonds are really saying — breaking down term premia vs policy rates22:42 — The Speculation phase — economies feel strongest right before it gets hard23:45 — The yield curve as liquidity barometer — why steepening consensus was wrong27:15 — The winter analogy — don't go outside in a swimsuit during winter29:40 — The asset allocation traffic lights — what to own at each phase33:51 — Julia asks what gets exposed when the tide goes out34:27 — The debt liquidity nexus — 80% of transactions are refinancing, 77% of lending is collateral based36:53 — The MOVE index — why bond volatility governs the entire collateral multiplier37:49 — Why Michael thinks the Fed and Treasury are quietly targeting the MOVE index40:30 — What happens if they stop capping it — basis trade collapses, collateral doom loop42:18 — The debt maturity wall — COVID debt turned out to end of decade, now coming back48:34 — The Fed is preoccupied with the wrong tool — the world has fundamentally changed51:00 — The Alice in Wonderland problem — raising rates today is actually stimulative53:00 — Kevin Warsh and the balance sheet — why slashing it is impractical right now54:23 — Treasury QE replacing Fed QE — short end issuance, monetization into real economy57:17 — Bitcoin and crypto — Treasury QE stabilization vs the bigger falling liquidity force01:00:02 — Final thoughts — count liquidity, get corroboration, don't rely on one club
