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Success That LastsAuthor: Jared Siegel
Success doesnt always feel like success, and when it looks like youve made it to the rest of the world, you can be left feeling like theres still so much to do but without a clear direction or plan. On the Success that Lasts podcast, hosted by Jared Siegel, we're going behind the scenes with business owners, real estate investors, and industry consultants to deconstruct the complicated topic of success. We'll be exploring questions, strategies and experiences that help create clarity and confidence surrounding your financial decisions. The content of this podcast is published in the United States of America and persons who access it agree to do so in accordance with applicable U.S. law. Delap Wealth Advisory LLC is wholly-owned subsidiary of Delap LLP. Jared Siegel is a partner in Delap LLP and is hosting the show in his capacity as a partner in Delap LLP. All opinions expressed by Jared Siegel on this podcast and on the show are solely Siegel's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Delap LLP or its affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by Siegel or the firm on another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Siegel as a specific inducement to make a particular investment, decision or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. Siegels opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither Delap LLP nor its affiliates and/or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Siegel, Delap LLP, its affiliates and/or subsidiaries are not under any obligation to update or correct any information provided on this podcast. Siegels statements and opinions are subject to change without notice. No part of Siegels compensation from Delap LLP is related to the specific opinions he expresses. Language: en Contact email: Get it Feed URL: Get it iTunes ID: Get it |
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Skill vs. Luck
Episode 86
Wednesday, 5 October, 2022
In this solo episode of Success That Lasts, Jared Siegel discusses the power narratives hold over us when making financial decisions, and how to think more empirically. He talks about the roles that skill and luck have in various aspects of life. “After a career of helping people make financial decisions, one thing is overwhelmingly clear to me: people are not calculators, they’re storytellers,” Jared claims. Humans are biologically wired to connect cause and effect, even if it may be incorrect. The more you want something to be true, he adds, the more likely you are to believe the story that overestimates the odds of it being true. If we learn how to second guess ‘easy’ narratives and learn to think more empirically, we can gain an advantage. According to a study done in collaboration with Dartmouth College, University of Chicago, California Institute of Technology and UCLA, less than 2% of people attempting to add value to the portfolio through predictions actually possess skill. Over a shorter time frame, the influence that luck plays, both good and bad, is greater. However, as you expand the sample size, the influence that luck plays is diminished, and outcomes become much more predictable. Resources Jared Siegel on LinkedIn | Twitter Email: jsiegel@delapwa.com DelapCPA.com The Success Equation by Michael Mauboussin Luck versus Skill Research Paper Memo from Howard Mark
