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Broken Pie ChartAuthor: Derek Moore
The Broken Pie Chart Podcast offers fresh looks at investment portfolio management, economics, markets, retirement planning, and more by simplifying and explaining important aspects of financial markets and the economy in easy to understand ways. Language: en Contact email: Get it Feed URL: Get it iTunes ID: Get it |
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10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.31% | Home Sellers Outnumber Buyers by a Record | Earnings Drive Returns as P/E Multiples Shrink | Dotcom Bubble vs. Today | Hidden Volatility in the Magnificent 7
Episode 398
Monday, 12 October, 2026
Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to break down where 2026 equity returns are actually coming from. Exhibit A data shows earnings have powered the S&P 500 this year while P/E multiples have contracted. Are we in a bubble? Comparing forward P/Es of the dotcom-era blue chips to today's leaders, plus the hidden volatility behind the Magnificent 7. Then, the 10-year Treasury yield climbs to 5.31% per Charlie Bilello as Eric Balchunas flags bond mutual fund outflows picking up steam. Redfin data shows home sellers now outnumber buyers by a record margin while contract cancellations hit their highest level since the pandemic. Plus, French bond risk soars, US vs. European natural gas prices diverge, and big banks kick off earnings season. All this and more this week. Average S&P 500 up year of +17.7% vs. average down year of -11.8% since 1950 S&P 500 2026 YTD total return of 15.14%, with earnings contributing 26.69% P/E multiple contraction has subtracted 12.58% while dividends added 1.03% Dotcom peak forward P/Es for Intel, Microsoft, Oracle, and Cisco vs. Google, Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft today Exhibit A: Magnificent 7 max drawdowns in 2022 vs. 2026 Bloomberg: S&P 500 at 7,799 trades at 19.2x estimated EPS of $407.70 Charlie Bilello: 10-year Treasury yield at 5.31% and 10-year real yield at 2.95% Bloomberg: 30-day correlation between the 10-year Treasury yield and the S&P 500 Eric Balchunas: Bond mutual fund outflows picking up steam as yields rise Bloomberg: French 10-year yield premium over German bunds at its highest since 2012 US Henry Hub natural gas is down -20.9% YTD vs. European TTF natural gas up a lot Redfin: Pending home sales cancellations hit 14.5% in September, highest since the pandemic Redfin: Home sellers at a 6-year high of 1.53 million vs. 972,300 buyers Redfin: 57.9% more sellers than buyers, a record surplus Redfin: Pending home sales fall to lowest level since the pandemic freeze JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, and ASML headline the week's earnings calendar Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com
