Top Traders Unplugged

Trend Following Hedge Funds Global Macro Geo-Politics Commodities Quant Investing Crypto Volatility

Author: Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Discover the fascinating world of investing with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and his remarkable co-hosts. Each week, we bring you compelling conversations with legendary investors, leading economists, masterful traders, and forward-thinking thought leaders. From Trend Following and Global Macro to Geo-Politics, Commodities, Quant Investing, Crypto, and Volatility, we uncover the strategies, stories, and lessons behind their success. Gain actionable insights from industry veterans as we celebrate their achievements and learn from their challenges. Stay ahead in the ever-evolving landscape of investing - tune in weekly and elevate your financial knowledge. For the latest episodes and expert insights, visit https://toptradersunplugged.com
Be a guest on this podcast

Language: en

Genres: Business, Business News, Investing, News

Contact email: Get it

Feed URL: Get it

iTunes ID: Get it

Get all podcast data

Listen Now...

GM95: When Consensus Gets the Cycle Wrong ft. Dario Perkins
Tuesday, 27 January, 2026

In this episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Dario Perkins to examine why the global macro consensus may be fundamentally misreading the current cycle. The conversation moves from US fiscal stimulus and Federal Reserve credibility to the limits of the K-shaped economy narrative. Perkins challenges prevailing assumptions around AI-driven productivity, labor market weakness, and falling inflation, arguing that policy choices are pushing economies toward overheating rather than stagnation. The discussion extends to bond markets, term premia, Japan’s normalization, Europe’s fiscal pivot, and China’s rebalancing dilemma. What emerges is a picture of renewed growth, rising risks, and a cycle whose ending is now becoming visible.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on LinkedIn.Follow Dario on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening remarks and context02:25 - Global uncertainty and growth expectations05:00 - The K-shaped economy under scrutiny08:12 - Fiscal stimulus, tariffs, and timing effects11:07 - Fed independence and political pressure17:06 - The race to appoint the next Fed chair26:35 - Productivity data and the AI narrative35:51 - Labor market stall speed debate39:56 - Bond markets, term premia, and inflation risk46:03 - Japan’s normalization and demographic...