Freakonomics Radio

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Freakonomics co-author Stephen J. Dubner uncovers the hidden side of everything. Why is it safer to fly in an airplane than drive a car? How do we decide whom to marry? Why is the media so full of bad news? Also: things you never knew you wanted to know about wolves, bananas, pollution, search engines, and the quirks of human behavior. To get every show in the Freakonomics Radio Network without ads and a monthly bonus episode of Freakonomics Radio, start a free trial for SiriusXM Podcasts on Apple Podcasts or by visiting siriusxm.com/podcastsplus.
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688. When Is a Bet Not a Bet?
Episode 688
Friday, 25 September, 2026

That’s the question at the heart of a battle between Kalshi and state gambling regulators. As prediction markets boom, there are other questions, too — about insider trading, market manipulation, and whether the public has turned against them. (Part two of a two-part series.) SOURCES:Gary Gensler, former chair of the S.E.C. and the C.F.T.C.Robin Hanson, professor of economics at George Mason University.Nicole Kagan, head of research at Kalshi.Tarek Mansour, co-founder and C.E.O. of Kalshi. RESOURCES:"Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs?" by Robin Hanson (Journal of Political Philosophy, 2013). EXTRAS:"Are Prediction Markets the Best Forecasting Tool Ever — or Just Another Casino?" by Freakonomics Radio (2026)."He Helped Clean Up the Last Crash. Does He See Another One Coming?" by Freakonomics Radio (2026)."The Economics of Sports Gambling," by Freakonomics Radio (2019). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.