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Around the Desk: This is where we at Avory think out loud, challenge narratives, and look for signal through the noise.

Author: Avory & Co.

Around the Desk: This is where we at Avory think out loud, challenge narratives, and look for signal through the noise. Each episode, the Avory & Co. team dives into whats moving markets, how companies are performing, and where opportunities may be forming. We break down earnings, macro trends, and investor sentiment all from the lens of a concentrated, high-conviction portfolio. *** The views expressed on Avory Podcast: Around the Desk are those of the hosts and guests and do not constitute investment advice. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon to make investment decisions. All investments involve risk, including potential loss of capital. Avory & Co. may hold positions in the companies discussed.
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Prediction Markets Aren't Really About Betting... Maybe?
Episode 88
Wednesday, 8 July, 2026

Welcome to Avory Around the Desk Podcast... Sean Emory, Founder and CIO of Avory & Co., asks whether prediction markets like Kalshi are really about betting, or whether they could expand society's capacity to transfer risk. Using Florida's hurricane insurance crunch, the Generac hedge, and AI-enabled micro-insurance, he argues insurance is capacity, and technology may finally be able to expand it. Chapters00:00 Welcome and setup01:19 Why prediction markets matter02:49 Markets as information engines05:55 From betting to bigger thesis07:17 Insurance prices uncertainty09:28 Capacity and risk transfer11:41 Florida hurricanes case study13:06 Hedging with opposite exposures15:04 Micro risks and AI automation18:31 Tech stack enables new markets21:15 Liquidity, market makers, regulation22:56 Wrap up and key takeawayDisclaimerThis conversation is for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing discussed is personalized investment, legal, tax, or insurance advice. Views reflect our thinking as of the recording date and may evolve as new information becomes available. Do your own research and consult a qualified professional before making financial decisions.More at avoryfunds.com