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The OPEX EffectAuthor: Excess Returns
The OPEX Effect is a joint podcast from Excess Returns and SpotGamma where we take a deep dive into the world of options and the flows they generate in markets. Join Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand every month on Options Expiration week as they look at the major developments in the options world and how they impact all of our portfolios. Language: en Contact email: Get it Feed URL: Get it iTunes ID: Get it |
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Violently Going Nowhere | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next
Episode 32
Sunday, 15 February, 2026
In this episode of The Opex Effect, Jack and Brent break down the growing impact of options markets on stocks, volatility, and sector rotation. While the major indexes appear calm, massive moves beneath the surface tell a very different story. From software stocks and AI disruption to gold, silver, bonds, and the Nasdaq, they analyze how dealer hedging flows, gamma positioning, implied volatility, and options expiration cycles may be shaping market behavior more than headlines suggest. If you want to understand why markets can feel wildly volatile yet go nowhere, and how options positioning can influence short term price action, this episode provides a deep dive into the mechanics driving today’s market environment.Main Topics CoveredWhy the market feels like the wildest calm market of all timeMassive single stock volatility versus muted index performanceSoftware stock weakness, AI disruption, and the so called SaaS apocalypseThe surge in options volume and the rise of zero DTE in major stocksHow dealer hedging, delta, gamma, and volatility flows impact equitiesThe historical tendency for markets to flip direction after options expirationRealized volatility versus intraday volatility and what is being hiddenBeneath the surface rotation into value, small caps, energy, and defenseGold and silver volatility spikes and what options volume signaled at the topRising demand for puts and what skew is telling us about downside riskCorrelation spikes, VIX behavior, and the risk of a volatility expansionHow positioning can create rapid market spasms in single stocks like Nvidia and TeslaWhy this environment may represent a staging area for a larger moveTimestamps00:00 Violently going nowhere and hidden volatility01:01 The wildest calm market of all time04:00 Introduction to The Opex Effect and options driven flows05:29 The growth of options trading and zero DTE impact11:00 Dealer hedging, delta, and how options move stocks13:42 Why options expiration can trigger regime changes16:22 Intraday volatility versus close to close volatility20:18 Extreme rotation beneath the surface21:00 Measuring expiration size with the lobster claw rating25:00 Single stock positioning and March expiration risk27:35 Core one month correlation warning signals33:00 Rising put demand and what skew reveals36:45 Asset rotation in bonds, gold, bitcoin, and tech43:06 Correlation spikes and crash risk setup46:40 The quickening of volatility and single stock spasms
